Dos Santos Miocic Prediction

UFC 211, taking place at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas on May 13, is set to provide some of the best action inside the Octagon in 2017. The night is headlined by a rematch between Stipe Miocic and Junior dos Santos for the world heavyweight title. Their first matchup at UFC on FOX 13 in 2014 was a back-and-forth battle that ended in a close but unanimous decision for the Brazilian. Now the tables have turned, as Miocic is the champion and hopes to retain his belt against the last person to defeat him.

  • Stipe Miocic betting odds history. UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks. UFC on FOX 13: Dos Santos vs. Miocic Dec 13th 2014: Stipe Miocic +190.
  • It could have easily gone Miocic’s way, but the scoring likely favored Dos Santos due to a more effective takedown. While this fight was extremely close and both fighters delivered some stellar blows, it’s pretty arguable Dos Santos deservedly took home the win.

Who walks out of UFC 211 the king of the heavyweights and the baddest man on the planet? Check out who we've got picked for Saturday's UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic vs Junior Dos Santos. Stipe Miocic (-140) isn’t the flashiest fighter in the division but is one of the most technically sound and athletic heavyweights in the world. Miocic’s game is built around a great boxing game that capitalizes on his experience in that sport.

But while the main event is sure to produce fireworks, so is a multitude of other fights on the card. Undefeated Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her strawweight belt against Jessica Andrade, who has won her last three bouts including a unanimous decision victory over Angela Hill in February. Demian Maia, who has won six consecutive, fights Jorge Masvidal for a chance to take on Tyron Woodley for the welterweight title. Other fights of interest: former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar vs. rising star Yair Rodriguez and Eddie Alvarez -- looking to rebound after a loss to Conor McGregor - vs. Dustin Poirier.

Does it get more loaded than that?

UFC 211 stories

Dos Santos Miocic Prediction

Cheat Sheets: Miocic vs. Dos Santos Jedrzejczyk vs. Andrade Maia vs. Masvidal Edgar vs. Rodriguez

EA Sports simulations: Miocic vs. Dos Santos Jedrezejczyk vs. Andrade

Poll: Pick the UFC 211 winners

Fight Metric: A look at Stipe Miocic vs. Junior Dos Santos

ESPN Stats and Info: UFC 211 By The Numbers

Eddie Alvarez ready to prove that UFC 205 was 'just a bump in the road'

Listen: UFC 211 preview, interviews with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Stipe Miocic

Stipe Miocic books title defense against Junior dos Santos

Joanna Jedrzejczyk to defend title against Jessica Andrade

Demian Maia, Jorge Masvidal booked for May 13

David Branch to take on Krzysztof Jotko in UFC 211

Frankie Edgar to face Yair Rodriguez in UFC 211

Prediction

Henry Cejudo, Sergio Pettis booked to UFC 211 on May 13

On May 13th, the UFC heads to Dallas with a Texas-sized main event, pitting heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic against former champion Junior dos Santos. Below, we look at the factors you’ll want to consider when determining where to put your money heading into the fight. Read on for expert betting insight.

A potentially explosive rematch

When a fighter rises to the top of their division, it’s inevitable to look at their history and find the chinks in their armour exposed on the way up. Stipe Miocic is such a fighter; now 16-2, the UFC’s heavyweight champion defeated Fabricio Werdum for the title and then trounced Alistair Overeem in 2016, claiming both victories in their respective first rounds. The division is his for the taking.

Miocic, a lean, 6’4” specimen, has looked invincible in his last few fights, but history is working against him. In a division whose belt has seen nineteen title reigns, only four of those have seen the champion defend twice after earning the title (and none of those four extended their runs to three successful defences). The reality is that, with as hard as men this size hit and the rigours of championship fight promotion, it’s just tough to stay on top of the heavyweight division for very long. Just ask Junior dos Santos.

Dos Santos looked ready to reign forever when he toppled then-champion Cain Velasquez with a first-round KO in 2011, but when he had a rematch with Velasquez in 2012, he found the match-up to be less advantageous than expected. He lost to Cain, then after a victory over gatekeeper Mark Hunt, lost to him again a year later. That’s when dos Santos beat Miocic, exposing a chink in the armour that the UFC expects Pay Per View watchers will want to see hammered out…or not.

Miocic

Miocic has a chance to make history on May 13, avenging his last defeat and tying the record for the longest championship run in the heavyweight division’s history. More than that, he has a chance at scoring a fourth consecutive first-round victory. As with every Miocic fight, it’s bound to be explosive.

Analysing the betting odds

Stipe Miocic’s recent betting odds at Pinnacle:

Name (Date)

Open

Highest

Lowest

Close

Result

Alistair Overeem (09/10/2016)

1.66

1.92

1.66

1.71

Win

Fabricio Werdum (05/14/2016)

2.50

2.62

2.34

2.62

Win

Andrei Arlovski (01/02/2016)

1.43

1.51

1.43

1.43

Win

Junior dos Santos’ recent betting odds at Pinnacle:

Junior dos Santos’ recent betting odds at Pinnacle

Name (Date)

Open

Highest

Lowest

Close

Result

Ben Rothwell (04/10/2016)

2.05

2.05

1.74

1.98

Win

Alistair Overeem (12/19/2015)

1.33

1.45

1.29

1.45

Loss

Stipe Miocic (12/13/2014)

1.26

1.28

1.21

1.24

Win

Bettors haven’t shown a lot of faith over the course of Miocic’s recent run, with the odds moving against the American in both his championship victories. They’ve been kinder to dos Santos, with odds movement correctly predicting both his recent victories, not to mention his recent defeat.

Dos Santos Miocic Prediction

Tale of the tape

Miocic

Name

dos Santos

6’4”

Height

6’4”

80”

Reach

77”

246 lbs

Weight

240 lbs

16-2

Record

18-4

12

Wins by KO

12

1

Wins by Sub

2

1

Losses by KO

2

0

Losses by Sub

1

Santos

The match up

They’re going to strike.

Both men prefer to do damage with their fists. For his career, Miocic has averaged 5.03 SLpM, dos Santos 4.89. They have similar SApM also; Miocic 3.26, dos Santos 3.22. The difference, really, is in the approach; dos Santos has traditionally used his length to control fights before going in for the kill. Miocic doesn’t play the waiting game, charging in with those same fists and a strong jaw to try to end things early. It’s that approach that got him three winners checks in 2016 for barely more than eight minutes of Octagon time.

More than dos Santos, Miocic has his wrestling available as an alternative plan. His takedowns aren’t efficient, but they still force the opposition to dedicate a portion of their defensive strategies. Both men have shown themselves to be tough to take down, with Miocic successfully defending 72% of takedown attempts, while dos Santos is at 80% despite three matches against Cain, one of the greatest MMA wrestlers of all time. Look for the fists to do the talking.

In their first match, it was dos Santos control that won him unanimous support on the judges’ cards, out-landing Miocic 123-89 (they each landed one takedown). That fact appears to be weighing heavily on the market.

Who will win?

That first fight seems to be acting as a huge deterrent for Miocic betting because everything else seems to favour the champion. He’s younger, has stronger recent results and is riding a wave of success, while dos Santos is a half-decade removed from his glory years and only barely earned the victory over middling Ben Rothwell in his last fight. Despite all that, dos Santos is barely an underdog at 2.160* as of this writing.

Dos Santos Miocic Predictions

If you believe Miocic (1.763*) is coming into his own after his amazing 2016, the champion is clearly the bet, especially since judges have a history of preferring to not allow a title to transfer on a decision. If, however, you think dos Santos has a return to his glory left in him and that the game plan that won the first fight is enough to keep the champion at bay, dos Santos is your man. Either way, massive men are going to collide and that makes for a wildly entertaining evening. Here’s hoping you enjoy the fights.

You can bet Miocic-dos Santos and the other UFC 211 fights here.